Clash of Civilizations Revisited

I arrived in Hyderabad at 2am in the morning.  My usual MO when going abroad is to withdraw local currency from an ATM in the baggage claim area. I have found that, given the nominal bank fees from my US institutions, this gives me more bang for the buck than using currency exchange booths in airports that have high fees.  Alas, the ATM was out of order. Having no Rupees, I resigned myself to using the currency booth exchange option. Oddly, it was closed. Given that nearly all international flights coming into Hyderabad arrive in wee hours of the morning, the office should have been open. Alarms should have gone off, but in my usual polyannish fashion, I chalked it up to karma/bad luck/strange circumstances and figured I could use an ATM in the arrival area.

Alas #2, all seven of the ATM’s in the arrival area were “out of order.”  As a seasoned traveler, I admit with some embarrassment, that I still see anything significant about this . But I did begin to wonder how I was going to get from the airport to…well…anywhere without cash.  Fortunately, the officially sanctioned taxi companies from the airport take credit cards. Otherwise, I would now be living there. Indefinitely.

India is one of the BRIC countries (or BRICK if you throw Korea into the mix–that is, South Korea, not the lunacy of the Northern iteration; or BRIIC/BRIICK if Indonesia is on your mind; or pluralize it with South Africa, as some do).  These are the up-and-comers that everyone who is anyone in higher education and economics has been told to pay attention to as they re-imagine our current world order. These countries, more or less (and over the last 15 years it has mostly been less) will bid to compete for power on the global stage with their growing economies and commitments to modern technology. But, as it turns out, my situation was not just dumb luck.  And it shed some light on the BRIC/BRICK/BRIICK/BRIIKS concept going forward.

My India experience was a result of “demonitisation,” which is intended to fight corruption (Venezuela has done something similar lately). The government eliminated the two largest currency denominations overnight in order to crush shady businessmen and crime syndicates who were surely keeping immense caches of these large currency bills under their business mattresses. Maybe this corruption-killing is happening (I have my doubts based on some revealing conversations with commodities “brokers” in the hotel where I stayed), but the more immediate effect on the street has been a rush by the non-shady elite and the middle-class to translate their large bills into smaller ones and to cash any recent pay-checks into smaller denominations asap. The result: a major shortage of the smaller bills. Translation: ATM’s have no cash. Banks have little usable currency–i.e. there are lines at the state bank that shame black Thursday sales at Best Buy… exponentially. If you are a tourist in the country right now, you are not going to get local currency, even at the best hotels.

Of course, there is a black market, but I would not suggest using it. Seriously, don’t do it. I thought about it and even tried it for two and a half minutes. You will not be treated well financially. You may not be treated well physically, depending on who you are dealing with. Just don’t do it if you are a tourist.

You may recall Samuel Huntington’s prediction that our world has been split into “civilizations” along cultural lines rather than moving towards a globally homogenous reality.  At the end of 20th century, he received a lot of push back since many thought his pre-9/11 picture of Islam v. the West was overly confrontational (this is, of course, being re-thought in light of the last decade). Many thought he was helplessly naive about the merging of minds in a globalizing world.

But now, in fact and in retrospect, he seems to have been on to something in terms understanding America’s global role going forward, at least in terms of the future of Asia.  India needs to be reckoned with as one of his “civilizations”, of course, in terms of absolute numbers of people in its borders, the movement of jobs (albeit low-tech jobs) into its economy and its regional influences.  But this influence needs to be put into a larger context. The economic disparity between the “haves” and “haves-not” is of a scale that is unintelligible in the west. The understanding of “rights”is made on a different human calculus. The expectations for “good” government are defined in entirely different terms in D.C. than in  Mumbai.

 

 

 

The Mystery of the 9th Amendment

An acquaintance recently asked me to prove my American mettle by reciting the ten amendments of the Bill of Rights (not verbatim, thank God, just the gist). It didn’t go very well.  Thanks to dramas on TV, I nailed #’s 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6. I just passed muster with 7, 8 and 10 by reaching deep into the recesses memory, but I had nothing to offer for 3 and 9. Nothing. In my defense, I don’t think the third amendment has made a public appearance in my lifetime. No one should be deported or sent to Guantanamo for not knowing the name of a recluse, so I should get a pass on that one.

But then there is the 9th amendment. It reads: “The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.”  Huh? Or in texting parlance, wtf?  The holes created in that sentence are so large that a proverbial truck of any size could be driven through them. Surely, James Madison wrote more clearly than this.

“Certain rights”?–So not all of them, but only some? Or does this mean, only the rights that no one is still quibbling about, so they are “certain”?

“Shall not be construed”–Beware of the passive voice. Is the unexpressed agent meant to be the courts (they think so), the executive (he thinks so), the population of greater Los Angeles?

“To deny or disparage others retained by the people”–I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sure some of my rights are disparaged on a regular basis even while they aren’t being denied.  Is that unconstitutional?

My limited research on the rationale behind this odd amendment (“odd” in content, I mean, and not just because it is, in fact, and odd numbered amendment) suggest that it was stuffed in there as a compromise. The compromise was a convenient way to appease that unruly lot of patriots who feared the power of the federal government. Having just thrown off the yoke of monarchy, they were suspicious that rule of Congress/the President might seep out of the container of limited government and make a mess on the front stoop of the states. Hmmm. I think the anti-federalists might have been drinking a bit too much before the Philadelphia Convention to agree to the wording of the 9th. The schnockered got snookered on this one.  The Supreme Court hardly ever referenced the amendment until the second half of the 20th century.  And irony of ironies, the Court has usually cited it in overturning a state law.

 

 

 

 

Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

So Putin is the mastermind behind the hacked DNC e-mails that are the source of today’s brouhaha. This is the big challenge for the expected party unity for the Dems.  Why? Mr. Putin wants Trump to be the next US President. That is the claim Robby Mook, Clinton’s campaign manager, made this morning. It is slightly more plausible than suggestions yesterday by Clinton supporters on Fox News that the e-mail messages may not be authentic.  But only slightly. And not by much.

If Putin does have an uncanny power to look into a crystal ball and see that Trump is going to dismantle NATO, go hunting shirtless, drink a lot of Vodka, and vacation in Sochi, more power to him. The rest of us are predicting that the Trump rhetoric that can be perceived to be favorable to Russia may be more about bluster than substance. Trump says a lot of things. Trump does not mean them all. Trump is not very predictable. Trump may, or may not, be pro-Russia.

Does this really seem to be a scenario where Putin is going to risk international political exposure to get involved, in a marginal way, in a US election? Perhaps. Obama, after all, was more than a wee bit chilly towards the Russian Man and his vision for a new empire. Clinton will be more of the same. Stranger things have happened.

But isn’t there a more obvious explanation?: the Dem establishment was not that enthusiastic about the socialist from Vermont; and hackers, be they Russian, American or Swedish, simply like exposing political power plays, even if they don’t have state sponsorship?

I’m eager to see what the newly announced “FBI investigation” unearths. One suspects it will be equivocal at best. Precisely why Sanders and Trump have fared so well this election season.

 

 

Is Trump from the Dark Side?

I have to admit upfront that I didn’t make it all the way through Donald Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. When it comes to political theater, I usually only have enough focus for about 30 minutes before I start checking e-mail, texting my kids or flipping channels to see whether the Red Sox are winning.  There was never a chance I’d catch the whole 76 minutes of Trump’s speech.

But I did watch it. I even made it to the 45 minute mark, which is why I was dumbfounded to see it described as “a dark speech” in the next day’s news cycle on realclearpolitics.com and as “vengeful” by CBS anchorman, Scott Pelley, whose awesome voice has enticed me into a man-crush. Dark? Vengeful? Huh? Donald Trump is Darth Vader? That is not the speech I heard. Not even close. And–to be blunt– I have no sympathy for the Devil, i.e., Trump’s desire to be the Leader of the Free World, nor do I support it.

I knew last June 16 that I wouldn’t be voting for Mr. Trump, and, like most people in the country, I am still scratching my scalp about his remarkable success in the primary run to be the Republican nominee. It almost defies logic.

I also knew immediately this past Thursday night that his convention speech was a success (never mind the 46 minutes beyond my normal attention span). It was not dark, angry or vengeful. It WAS typically Trumpy, though with far more complete sentences and fewer vacuous adjectives than usual–teleprompters aren’t all bad.  If you were on the conservative fence about Donald J. Trump, he delivered enough to comfort you. If you hated the Man, then, well, you hate him even more, but be careful in how you understand his speech.

There was a nod to compassion for immigrants: granted, not the nasty illegal types, DREAMers, or those from his heretofore unreleased list of terrorist supporting countries, but the other respectable immigrants, who have been properly vetted and don’t rape and murder. There was a nod to international cooperation, as long as it isn’t predicated on the U.S. going above and beyond the meager contributions of its partners.  There was an (expected) nod to the public service of our police, who, as a category of citizens, has indeed come under questionable media attack in recent years. There was a (also expected, yet wonderfully ironic) nod to the need to level a political playing field that favors the super-rich.  I hadn’t appreciated the Billionaire’s eagerness to speak for the disenfranchised plumber. There was (as expected) a paucity of details about how he is going to make America great again. But dammit, he will.  Be skeptical if you want, but this is going to resonate with a lot of people.

The Donald has branded himself as the candidate who “tells it like it is”. When the President, the presumptive Democrat nominee and a large section of the press start picking nits about Trump’s political credentials, the absent specifics of his plans and his misguided interpretation of crime statistics, they are only adding fuel to his fire. These Dems are people who are out of touch. Despite all their populist rhetoric, they are out of touch.

In fact, Obama lacked the CV of a President. In fact, people are worried about the reach of ISIS into the everyday safety of US citizens even if violent crime has been on decline. In fact, Hilary Clinton has a credibility problem. In fact, we all benefit from the police in our communities. Trump says these things. Clinton does not, or she uses more caveats than the typical mid-westerner can stomach when she talks about them at all.

I heard nothing dark, nor vengeful, in the Donald’s words. I just heard the Donald, who has been regularly connecting with the electorate over the last year, or at least, an important part of it that the Dems ignore or despise.  For crying out loud, who doesn’t want people to be happily employed, safe from terrorism, confident in the integrity of government, not shooting each other in the streets, committed to racial harmony.  If this is dark and vengeful…

No wonder that I only have a half hour political attention span. One candidate is dangerously full of himself and the other is in dangerously dysfunctional denial.